Friday, March 7, 2014

Gold fall and real estate in Spain too!

▪ Why stubbornly deny that behind a " negative growth " and consumption that beats the last six weeks wing profile lightning recovery of the U.S. economy that will propel us the Dow to 20,000 points and the CAC 5 000 40 ?

Of course, if all U.S. economic figures argued for a type scenario in January 2000 or July 2007, it would be too easy: 3.5% or 4 % growth, it shows. In this case , it must be creative .

We must imagine all the money poured by the Fed since last September ( wasted as GDP rose from 3 % to -0.1% in the interval ) suddenly reappear by mid - 2013 in the real estate ... which seems falter since November.

We are witnessing a technical reflux ( decrease in the NAHB index , falling 8.5% of housing starts in the United States in January ) of the same type before a tidal wave. The waves withdraw before the emergence of a bullish wave that will sweep our skepticism and our mockery .

Similarly, the small voltage in U.S. long rates (2.04 % over 10 years ) is a precursor to arbitration T -Bonds for shares ( the "Grande rotation). Do not see a fit of nervousness on prospects for debt reduction if the Republican majority in Congress again - as he regularly shows his intention - his guerrilla war against the White House.

▪ In Europe, too , not to worry !
In Europe, the suspense on the Italian elections is already in progress, as the default and the restructuring of the Cypriot debt (18 billion euros ) . And that would be paranoid enough to claim that such a scenario would plunge the Greek banking system , already in agony in new inextricable difficulties ?

We 've seen worse ( with 250 billion euros of restructuring ) , so nothing to worry about in the immediate future.

And since "Super Mario" ( Draghi ) has the magic weapon verb that solves crises, there is no need to worry about this release of the Portuguese Government revises -1% to -2 % in the amount of the anticipated recession in 2013 (after -3.2 % in 2012) .

We do not see how Spain could be affected while you a little more each day precisely the huge stakes and the potential cost measure - as a colossal losses for the country - the bursting of the housing bubble 2008.

The SAREB , the structure of Iberian defeasance (or bad bank on the French model of CDR) created at the request of the European authorities , has acquired to date as 60 billion euros of foreclosed or unsold goods : this is a stock about 90 000 dwellings.

It is only a drop in the light of 200,000 homes seized by banks and stock over a million unsold new homes. Note that the latter figure is an estimate of wills the end of 2012 ... but a figure of two million unoccupied flows emphatically past two years.

▪ In Spain, it's getting better and better
This is not the worst: the "official" decline in real estate of 35% from the peak of the bubble - this hedonistic estimation has so far limited provisions on unrealized losses for banks , otherwise they have already largely failed. However, the potential (often Anglo- Saxon " vulture funds " type) would require a discount ranging from 60 % to 80 % depending on the property proposed lots .

This may seem unfair for sellers but a considerable proportion of the goods concerned are unsellable ( not completed without running water or not related to any sanitation, open to all winds and already severely degraded by weather, looted or vandalized ... ) .

The SAREB - who had taken many assets at a discount of 50% - has already sold 13,000 units (15 % of its stock ) in January. Professionals fear a new blip on prices in 2013 if it forces the pace.

Stocks it holds is only the tip of the iceberg : they represent only 6% of the 1.2 million homes that banks hold in mortgage form or seized property.

This is not counting bank claims on hundreds of shopping centers on the outskirts of deserts ghost neighborhoods and millions of square meters of unoccupied office .

With this in mind , Mariano Rajoy has justifiably pleased yesterday before the Spanish Parliament, summarizing a formula the situation : "The sinking was avoided ."

With close to 7 % of GDP deficit in 2012 and 300 billion unrealized property losses , everyone to their own opinion on the matter.

We feel that it is especially the sense of reality which wrecked ... But this syndrome is not more severe south of the Pyrenees across the Atlantic , where every statistic - especially good and bad - gives rise to completely convoluted interpretations which it is clear that the crisis and the recession are behind us and counterfeit currency central banks will do wonders .

Iconic Russell 2000 indices like the Dow or the Transport struggle daily new records in New York. DT has also not failed to register a 20th consecutive points in 6021 opened yesterday.

▪ And the gold ?
One of the predictions of permabulls is coming true : meet the huge upside potential of equities this year and in 2014 , investors are selling their gold.
Here ounce which unscrews under $ 1,600 , and which seems more decisive in support of $ 1,585 (that is to say, the basis of the bearish channel medium term).

That said, the fall of the yellow gold had nothing to envy to that of the Black Gold: barrel flowed peak of 2.4% in the support of $ 95 to sink up to 93.8 $ .

But nothing in the world will not stay suggest that the general decline in raw materials resulting from the realization that the growth that we are promised are only in speeches intended to trap investors ... that is ie those that are pressed to buy shares now that they are back in full swing while insiders relieve themselves happily .

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